spending half a page debating about arashi vs. ayu is quite... useless.

I'm not a johnny fan at all, so lemme say something objectively:
Ayu can't defeat NEWS or Arashi or KinKi Kids at all at this very moment. Even with huge promotions I dun think she can pull up over 160K on the first week on average. Don't forget, avex had to push VERY hard in order to beat SCS with 141K for Mirrorcle World. Let's face it, if avex didn't put those "buying 2 versions get something; buying all 4 versions get something PLUS a group pic" blah blah blah, MW would not get weekly no. 1 at all. Also, the first week sales of MW was based SEVEN days, not the usual six days for the first week. avex did decent promotion for Days/GREEN as well. She did go on many live performances, avex did release lots of ringtones/rbt/video clips, etc.

So, in the end, it's safe to say that ayu can get around 100K copies on the first week, but she can't make 150+K to beat the johnny boys I mentioned above.

:yes After HEAVEN was pitted up against Kanjani8's triple A-side single , I think avex were scared outta their witts already :laugh & that the once bitten twice shy approach has set into place

& the reason as to why Johnny's albums doesn't sell as well as their singles counterpart is because fangirls are generally poor & a single cost 3-4 times more expensive than an album

also you can have many versions of a single easily unlike an album & Johnny's bands tend to promote a single more extensively than an album

:roflmao

Sorry to continue about Arashi sales here....but I think its important to also note, that its not just fangirls that drive the sales so high. Its true that younger groups like KAT-TUN and Heysayjump have an almost exclusively teenage fan girl audience. However groups like SMAP, TOKIO, Kinki Kids and now it seems Arashi too all have large middle age as well as male audiences. Basically everyone in Japan has a favorite SMAP or Kinki Kids song - those groups are simply liked in general. These groups wouldn't be able to basically dominate every tv station each night if their only audience was teenage girls. Also telling about Arashi is the fact that Truth, One Love, and Beautiful Days are all STILL in the Oricon top 50 selling around a thousand copies each a week! That doesn't happen if your only audience are fan girls.

I know you already know all this though since you are a big Johnny's fan. :) I just think its important for people not to underestimate the power of Johnny's on the general public in Japan - it is not just a fan girl thing that is driving their popularity.

Anyways, third day numbers should be out in another hour or so.

:laugh you know you stunned me there for a while because of what you said about the Johnny's bands & I take my hat off to you & yes it's not just fangirls who buy/support them , their fan markup also consist of other demographics in Japan too

It took ARASHI for a good 9 years to get to the popularity at where they're at now so hats off to them too & I hope they will have a great 10th anniversary this year :D

:yes , probably about 2 hours+ at where I'm at since Japan's ahead of S'pore by an hour

Y'know... I'm not overly fussed about her sales >.<
I just don't want her to lose her #1 streak :P

Yeah I know it's going to happen some day, but I think this single deserves to be #1 ._.

true it's #1 worthy material :yes

Time will tell... I just hope she'll be 1st with it... to keep the legend alive... I don't like this single (well I like sparkle but not rule, the main song) so I just wait for the album to be good !

1 5,214 Ｒｕｌｅ／Ｓｐａｒｋｌｅ AVT 09/2/25
浜崎あゆみ

Estimated 3rd day sales = 5,214 x 1.75 = 9,125
Estimated 3 days sales = 42,863 + 19,745 + 9,125 = 71,733

@_@ Speakless!

I didn't expect it to be under 5500 :( However the prediction graph is probably going to be true. Hopefully the friday index won't be below 3400.
It's already doing better than talkin' 2 myself was :) so it's ok XD

And it's also #1 for today!
flumpool's index today is 2,697. They are no threat for ayu at all... Their consistency isn't strong against ayu's natural drops lol.
Now it's really pretty safe to say that ayu will continue her streak =D (unless if there will be unreasonable things happenning).

lol flumpool is flopping xD I didn't expect them to drop that much...And yeah it's safe to say Ayu owns another #1!

Aaah sweet! Go Ayu go!!!

But Days/GREEN got just around 14,000 less than MW's first week and it didn't have 7 days or special gifting and sudden promotions so it's not neccesary to happen, but avex did what they had to do with MW.

On another note, leave ayu, is there anyone who can beat arashi's first week? or kinki kids? (NEWS I'm not so sure if they are a consistent pole but maybe they are). Therefore I think it's futile to talk who can win them since almost no one (if anyone) can at this point. I think those JE's can only beat themselves =P.

Perhaps Mr. Children, B'z, or Southern All Stars, depending on how strong the song maybe. Otherwise, no, I would say no one at this point in time.

she'll be #1 this week ! i'm so happy for that .

Not bad (3rd day sales):).

Days was much more popular compared to MW for sure (the digital charts said it all). Also, there wasn't any strong/surprise competitor at all for Days. Let's say if SCS released their debut single with Days, I'm sure avex would do something to boost up the sales as well.


Not even B'z can beat the current Arashi unless they give out a really strong single. B'z sales has been falling as well. But like I've said for thousand times, we won't see people with "No. 1 streak" statues battling themselves. Every company wanna make the streaks as long as possible.

Since 2004, I have already accepted the fact that ayu is not one of those most popular artists anymore. I feel like the no. 1 single streak is the only valuable thing left to maintain her current diva statue. However, sometimes I kinda think it's good to break it so she can be free from this silly thing...

B'z's BURN sold only a few copies more than MW, so I doubt they can do much nowdays.

That's why I said, "depending on the song." :) Burn wasn't a great song, but when something like Ocean comes along, the Japanese public love it.

WOW!
Huge HALF drop! O_O"

Another my beloved B&D/Pride 1st week sales index indeed. :|