^ not really.
Its two factors.. maybe even 3.
Album position and sales are the big 2, another one would have to be critical response.
ayumi's last albums were both number 2 (party queen and ASB) and they were gold certified, so its hardly a flop... disappointing? maybe, but not a flop.

All I can say: wait and see... (even if it's clear from the begining, she won't get this 1#... :()