Yesasia and CDJapan aren't really sites that say anything.
It's mainly non japanese people who pre-order from them.
Plus usually it should be the top on the first days of the pre-order not a few days before the actual release. xD

Reminding that even the first presses (on CDJapan) are over.

Also the best selling jpop album of the year of CDJapan of 2009 for example (which was ayu's NEXT LEVEL) sold around 1,000 there. XD

So yeah CDJapan and yesasia don't determine anything even if the single wasn't on the top positions at all.

more than 150k :D

hopefully even more than 200k


EDIT: If Japan still loves ayu's ballads for winter this single is a must-best-seller ^^

I think You were/BALLAD all 3 versions were on TOP of CDJapan weeks ago ^^ People could buy it more than one month ago, so peopel who want it already preordered it.. ^^

I'm suspecting 160-170k.

But I'm known to be horribly off when it comes to predicting sales, other than Days/GREEN.

Has its "sales prediction index" (or whatever it's called) been released yet??

You mean NINKI?

I think it will be out in like 11 hours. XD

It's not really an index though.

Yeah, thanks, now I know its name haha
NINKI is supposed to predict which single will hit the top spot, right?

Not necessarily.

They just ask a group 400 people if they are interested in a certain release and they give points accoring to the amount of people who were interested in purchasing that certain release.
That's why it's not that of an index since 400 can't represent a whole country or music purchasers. xD

They are right most of the time with the #1 positions but still it's just a minor index, so it doesn't say much.

I think this will sell more than A, Boys & Girls, SEASONS, M, evolution, and }{ all put together and I frankly DGAF what you guys say ( :P )!!

This is more likely.

I think it will sell overall 130k

Can't wait until the NINKI is released, I hope soon in a few hours.

Here's the NINKI:

NINKI (12/28 - 03/01)

SINGLES
01 92.00 浜崎あゆみ - You were.../BALLAD
02 56.10 GACKT - Stay the Ride Alive
03 17.40 緒方理奈 (水樹奈々) - 「WHITE ALBUM」キャラクターソング 緒方理奈 (POWDER SNOW)
04 17.10 森川由綺 (平野綾) - 「WHITE ALBUM」キャラクターソング 森川由綺 (恋色空)
05 16.30 北島三郎 - 夫婦一生
06 15.00 茄子 - 一富士、二タカ、三茄子
07 14.00 島津亜矢 - 温故知新

I think know that Ayu will sell about 100k in total.
Singles released around christmas normally sell less than singles released on another time in the year.

i say about 75k the first week and in total around 110-130k

good to hear that the single had topped the cdjapan/hmv/yesasia charts earlier... i'm still a little worried though~ i hope the single sells 150 thousand-ish... there ARE three covers after all and they're nice ones too unlike S/S -_-

100k is a very good number but i think it would sell something like 280k

I just hope it breaks 200K... The economy has gotten better in Japan, no? Maybe that will help a little.

Just a question, are the 400 people the same every week?? Because if they change that people NINKI is even less reliable XDD

I still hope that shis single will do as good as Days/GREEN did... though it deserves better sales, I love ALL tracks and bonus and all PV!!!

I reckon it'll sell around 150k

It'll definitely outsell S/S.

I'm thinking it'll be like Rule/Sparkle... But I hope like days/GREEN or MW, hehe!

This^^