^Somehow yes it does. Think about why the fans bought so many copies in order to boost MW sales on weekends. They wanted ayu to maintain the no. 1 streak. If her streak was gone, do you think many hardcore fans in Japan would continue to purchase multiple copies? We can't say they're not hardcore anymore just because they purchase single copy instead of two or three. It's pretty understandable that once the streak is gone, they will lose the motivation to spend much money for the no. 1 sake.

If that's the case (and most likely it will be), avex will surely lose a lot of profit. We all know that ayu and other female artists' sales are not that good nowadays. Right now ayu's first week sales are about 70 - 100K, and we simply know that it doesn't translate into 70 - 100K people buying the single. Instead probly 30 - 40K hardcore fans buying multiple copies to give that sales figure. So... the streak actually has a bit of factor on her sales nowadays...

Yeah, I know where you're coming from, but you can also see it the other way round.
If her (hardcore) fans want to help her keeping her streak it's better she has competition so the fans have an appeal to buy all versions or even more. If she releases on a date without competition why should they buy so much versions? She's still big enough to sell a good amount of copies to get No.1 on a date without heavy competition.
At the end it depends on multiply factors, not just the release date and the competition. She has to have good songs, good quality, to begin with. So we have to wait what Avex will do and how it'll turn out in the end.

Not true, SoundScan posted the exact numbers for each version and I posted them somewehre before (for Rule/Sparkle and Days/GREEN). The majority of people buy the CD+DVD ver. where for example versions B and C of Rule/Sparkle sold around 15k and 10k each.

I'm just making an assumption, not the exact number. Probly I should modify that. Let's say this time she sells 90K. I would say 40K copies are from fans who only buy single piece, then 5K or so from casual buyers. the remaining 45K will be purchase by.. ~10 - 15K fans who will get multiple copies.

Ahh I think it's pointless to speculate how that damn no. 1 streak will affect sales, since avex hasn't made any move anywayz (or probly they are not going to make any). What I'm afraid is fukuyama. His single is usually a miss, or a sudden huge hit. If this single is a miss, then it doesn't matter whether avex moves the release date or not. If this single is a hit.. I think avex should move it if they wanna save her streak. Sometime fukuyama san can make miracle hits, and I expect that if this single is another hit, it will sell over 200K on the first week for sure. I dun think ayu's first week sale can get another closer to that.. UNLESS if ayu is making a miracle hit.. (oh well she hasn't made any for the past few years..)

Hmm I don't want to sound *****y, but I don't think that Ayu's sales are THAT fan driven. Especially when Sunrise/Sunset only had the 2 regular versions and it's sales weren't that far from Rule/Sparkle's.

Well Sunrise also did really good digitally, 250,000 full song and 500,000 ringotnes, way bette than everything she has released since Together When... since 2007, even better than glitter (and I think STEP you did the same).

I think there is a large difference though. Put any of those major selling groups up against each other and their sales are consistently high as well as getting number ones. Ayu has number ones, but in terms of sales, she doesn't come close to most (or any) of those groups anymore. (B'z is the one possible exception that could be used but even still in terms of "meaningless" single streaks, Ayu is the only one I would put in that category these days) Or to put it this way - put Ayu against any of them and she will likely lose. Put any of them against each other and it wouldn't be nearly so cut and dry. For example, put B'z in for Ayu vs. Fukuyama. No one would be saying "that's the end of B'z single streak." More like - "Pretty equal, wonder who will come out on top?" :)

On this point I somewhat agree, though I don't think it will be quite that drastic. :) Or at least not for a while anyways.

Supposedly putting fukuyama with the term "them", and saying "put ayu against any of them she will likely lose" = losing streak. - Then why should avex be stupid and put ayu to lose from the first place?
Having a meaningless streak is still better than losing it in a competition where you 100% lose it, and it's not like there should be a fight if they can win her like nothing.

I still didn't understand your point of the huge difference if B'z would compete another boyband (or put fukuyama with a B'z release or kinki kids or something of that sort).

^ hmm? I thought the point was pretty clear. You wouldn't necassarily know who would come out on top, therefore in my eyes, their single streaks have more validity to them. Sure other artists often release on relatively non-competition weeks as well to be safe, but many of them don't necassarily have to do that - Ayu does apparently. I would much rather Ayu have a single streak that is not completely dependent upon having a week with no competition. It's like winning a race when no one else is running. Would you actually feel good about "winning" that race? I know I wouldn't. That's why I hope they don't move the release date and Ayu actually is able to kick some ass. Or if not, then oh well. She will lose her number one status at some point and it's not the total end of the world.

So because their streaks have more validity they have the let's call it... "permission" to avoid each other and turn their "valid streak" meaningless?
Because as I understood validate streak is when they at least sometimes fight for their streaks.
But after stopping the fight I think that, even for you, the validate streak should become boring since they just stopped taking competitions right?

But of course that when ayu will lose her streak it won't be the end of the world, it would be just more of a shame (as in too bad) if it happens before she could break seiko's record, but yeah no one would do anything if it won't happen =P. Could be nice though.

For another issue... Wasn't S/S itself in kind of a competition with momosu's and B'z's single?
I mean S/S was #2 and even #3, it wasn't #1 for most of the week, so shouldn't it be called at least some kind of a competition? :P

In some ways yes. Though I really don't think anyone should have permission to avoid release dates. :) But with them I can at least know that based on their sales, if they were to actually take the chance it would be a real competition - not a smackdown. :) Same thing could be said for Ayu's past sales too - just unfortunately today her sales are no longer that high.

Oh, the second point - no. :) As much as I love Morning Musume, they aren't really competition for Ayu (or hardly anyone) anymore. And B'z single came out at least one week before, haha.

B'z had chances to release the same week arashi did a couple of times this year, would they stand a chance? LOL no. Their streak and KinKi's too is as meaningless as Ayu's, because they are all passed their prime and there is someone who could easily smash their streak in 2-3 days.

Four threads? What are you guys even talking about, all we know is the title. :dead2

She has to change everything up, personally. Hopefully she's worked with new arrangers and stuff, but I doubt it.

If she keeps her streak - well done. If not, well, then it wasn't meant to be. I hope she doesn't change the release date. You cannot be Number One forever, Guilty proved that. And I think Ayu doesn't cares as much as the fans or avex. ;)

^ I agree. :yes


That's why I said B'z could be an exception. But still their sales this year could hang with most of the big artists. Ayumi's sales have not been able to hang with many of the big artists for a few years now unfortunately.

I think to use Arashi as an example is almost cheating. haha :) They are so hot right now that they would easily crush anyone without batting an eye. But one artist on an extreme hotstreak does not devalidate the high sales of every other artist. There is like stratispheric high (Arashi) and then high (the other artists mentioned here) and then those that used to be high and hang with those groups but don't anymore though their records would deceive people into thinking otherwise. ;)


....and then after all this discussion, watch Fukuyama's single be like the one big flop of his career. lol

i think the arrangers she's working with now do a really good job most of the time, i'm just not big on HAL arranging her ballads. i hope yuta nakano will be arranging these new ballads again

^ I do hope she brings in some fresh blood for at least one of the songs. Although I am generally happy with her composers and arrangers, something new couldn't really hurt and could help.

This year, I agree, however their previous couple of years weren't really as good and Ayu could match their 2008 releases :) not to mention their albums sales which have declined years ago.

Indeed, but it just shows that their streak can easily be smashed to pieces xD

LOL, even though that would be fun, considering that the fans requested the release, I don't know what to think.

I don't think she has to change everything. I loved what she did so far, so if she suddenly changes everything, that wouldn't make sense and the people that like her might be turned of. Of course she can experiment, but not to the point of changing stuff that still makes her Ayu, like her epic ballads, for example.

It would be funny if just his fans would buy it. XD But can he release anything without making the public interested?