[CHARTS + SALES] GUILTY -- ORICON STYLE
 

1st Week

2008.12.25

Position: #1
Index: 39,292
Estimate Sales (1st Day): 39,292 X 1.7 = 66,796


2008.12.26

Position: #1
Index: 24,256
Estimate Sales (2nd Day): 24,256 X 1.7 = 41,235

2008.12.27

Position: #1
Index: 18,391
Estimate Sales (3rd Day): 18,391 X 1.7 = 31,264

http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/ja/d/

http://www.oricon.co.jp

i am so........sad >.<

It will improve, Don't forget that people were informed that Guilty will be in stores from 1.01.2008

wow!!! so less....it's like her single sales...this album is probably going to end up selling less than 500k

Why does Avex release the CD earlier then the release date? I think its stupid.

oh gosh, that wouldn't be something nice for sure... I hope it will surpass 500k

SHOCK!!! Well it will surely improve during the week

I afraid she can't get #1 for this time.
コブクロ & EXILE are still selling quite well.

I do not think that all Japanese were aware of the sale before the 2008/1/1
I think we must wait the official release of GUILTY...

And maybe because this CD release just before Christmas, so no money... xD

That is a bit too low I consider..
Hopefully the sales will increase later..

And I dun really think the Japanese dunno about it. It is a common practice to release the album the last wednesday before January 1st. I would rather think the people dun really rush to get the album this time..

I only hope that the sales stay constant the next 6 days, at least, and if it sells around 450 K in the first week, it's ok :) we really shouldn't expect larger sales than the ones Secret had^^.Besides aren't this and the next week counted as one?

In all honesty, I'll just be happy if this is another number one album.
Sales don't really bother me much anymore.

Hopefully it will improve better and better,
and I hope it will sell better than Secret or maybe (miss)understood..
GO AYU!

Not bad ;D!

From Xaoj @ JPM:
Albums:

01->02 - Kobukuro - 33384 + 21742 (x1.7) = 93,714
02->03 - EXILE - 24610 + 15207 (x1.7) = 67,689
xx->01 - Ayumi Hamasaki - xxxxx +39292 (x1.7) = 66,796

At this rate, ayu might finish at #3
I hope the sales will improve.

Well it was Christmas day. Can't expect a lot of people shopping for albums on Christmas... most would go out and eat. Plus I thought the release date was supposed to be on the 26th?

hasn't it only been in stores one day? chill out people.

LOL there goes the #1 streak.

Trust me avex won't let her #1 streak disappear even if they have to set up an autograph and handshaking session or buy loads of albums themselves.

I don't understand why almost everybody care about sales so much. It's not a big deal really. And it will get #1 don't worry. ;)

I dunno what to think. I love the album. hope it does well :)

Oh well. What was everyone expecting? Let's hope this "THEY KNOW IT'S IN STORES IN 1/1" theory is right. :D

AYUMI HAMASAKI MUST BE #1 WITH SALES OF 1M+ FOREVER! >=O

SO LOW!!! C'MON JAPAN BUY IT!!!

yes!..same sentiments..1.01.2008 is what most people refer as the official release date of guilty..only die-hard fans knew the common practice and buy it on christmas =)...since GUILTY is currently being heavily promoted...i believe sales will most likely soar higher as time goes on as even those who're not a fervent fan of ayumi but were impressed by her or knew her by promotions will buy GUILTY on 1.1.2008 onwards :yes

Technically, anybody who bought (m)u would know of the practice so.

first week sales should be as much.

relying on the theory that "lol! 1.1.08 = release date! <3"

that said, I do want this to sell more than Secret.

its not really good chart..
i hope 1st week it can sell more than a best 2 white or more than 475K in 1st week..

Well dun forget oricon will combine 1st + 2nd weeks sales together. Though I dunno if it's a positive or negative to GUILTY.

If the 2008.01.01 official release date theory is happening and more people will get the album afterwards, the longer chart run will definitely making ayu getting another no. 1.

BUT if this theory doesn't work... Well two options available:
1) the sales of GUILTY keep decreasing so it cannot beat Kobukuro (and maybe even EXILE, but doubt ayu will get no. 3 because EXILE and ayu are practically under avex.. providing that rhythmzone is under avex)

2) the sales of Kobukuro and EXILE decreases dramatically while GUILTY's sales are steady. Then ayu will get herself another no. 1.

I'm sure Kobukuro's and EXILE's sales will decrease, but honestly, Ayumi isn't known as the steadiest seller in Japan. D: Let's just hope her decreases will be smaller and her increases bigger.

^ does combining 1st + 2nd weeks sales helped m(u) in it's sales back then? (sorry im a late ayu fan)

maybe 1st+2nd week combine guilty can reach 1st week

i hope exile and kobukuro sales will decrease dramatical..so guilty is the 9th album streak at 1st..

This won't be #1. Kobukuro and Exile will most likely beat her in the long run.

OK... I guess we have to account some facts for the index:
1) usually cds released on Wednesday in Japan, so GUILTY is supposed to be arrived at cd stores on the 26th rite? But this time avex released it on Tuesday the 25th (so that people can buy the cd on the x'mas day).. Therefore, unless you're hardcore fans, otherwise normal people would think that GUILTY should be in store on the 26th.

2) Maybe not lots of Japanese go shopping on x'mas day. (I guess we'll need someone living in Japan to tell us if that is true or not).

3) Usually the sales shown on the first day is the preorder sales...


Points 1 and 2 are positive, while point #3 is negative. I mean, the first day sale of GUILTY is combination of the "surprise Dec 25th in stores sales" + preorder sales. So that means there is not much preorder for GUILTY this time.. :no



The "first week" sales of (m)u was around 600 - 680K I guess, which wasn't too bad. But this album showed the short chart run of ayu's album in the first time. I think Memorial address and MY STORY's two weeks combined sales are around 700K, not significantly higher, but both albums went over 1 million copies eventually. (m)u didn't.

if someone still do not buy this album, pls try to book it in this week. I think it is only thing we can do in this moment.

Isn't this just 12.25.07 sales? Maybe the sales will decrease as soon as people recover from their christmas money loss... ;)

Like I said, Dec 25th sales are combination of Christmas day sales + preorder sales. I dun really think preorder sales would be affected by the money loss issue that much. Most people would have preordered the album during the first 2 weeks when the album was available to be ordered (that means it's around mid nov).

i agree with bluegie in poitn 1 and 2..
and i think japanese people spend alot of money for xmas day..
so in my opinion they think they wil buy this album later

let me soo tomorrow's chart

oh i see...yeah that's quite disappointing:(

Must have faith in GUILTY sales; im sure it will rise when the official date is near.

The album is friggin amazing, I hope it will do well

It's so less :(

What were the sales of "Secret" first day? This seems sooooooo low.. :(

And Ayu's sales are never steady...

Oh for god's sake I am FED UP with people going "OH NOES THATS LIEK SO LOW" READ PEOPLES POSTS - IT WAS RELEASED BEFORE THE RELEASE DATE AND IT WAS CHRISTMAS DAY FFS.

Just wait and see what happens on the ACTUAL release date and on days that ARNT A NATIONAL HOLIDAY

Except there was massive promo so everyone knew it was out & X-mas isn't a national holiday in Japan.

Well like someone said maybe the people in Japan are spending time now after Christmas with their families instead of running through mall spending their money that's left... Or then GUILTY simply doesn't click to japanese people. :( But there's just been 2 days so let's not lose our hopes completely. I think the sales will decrease most around the weekend.

386,280

the sales figures shows the sales for the first day only.

Thank you. It was a national holiday and only crazy fans would buy the album when a lot of people were at home or outside celebrating with their family or hungover.


It isn't a national holiday but a high percentage of the Japanese celebrate it by having a special meal. Also from what I remember the release date was supposed to be 26th and not 25th meaning only those diehard fans who check the site/stores everyday would get to know about the early release. In fact Yahoo Auctions only had 3-4 pages selling GUILTY albums and promo stuff. Today it has 10.

Well, it is low.

That's the first week, not day.

I guess there's no data about Secret first day sales because oricon daily sales number has just started on February 2007.

I see! Thanks for informing this.

Now that I think about it. The daily sales appeared when A BEST 2 was released.

i doubt thats included with PREORDER sales right?

and sales will increase during the weekends...for sure...remember Ayu's CDL and stuff

beh AVEX won't let her not have no1 weekly ^^, as someone said, I am pretty sure they will do anything, and besides even BoA managed to get it with MIT.Not that it matters as the album is awsome :D

Erm I thought album is out only on 1.1.08...

Then what about overseas edition?

wouldn't preorder sales be counted the official release date? i may be wrong but that number seems awfully low to be including preorders.

^yea...i hope they only include preorders together with the WHOLE thing..im sure with CDJAPAN having sold out the first press...it would have sold 100k already

how is secret 1st day sales??
so we can compare it with guilty

As it was mentioned before Oricon didn't have daily sales back then when Secret was released ;)

so it means there is daily chart start in 2007??
okay,..
thanks for telling ^^

More people will start to buy the album soon. It's all because of the Christmas' release. You'll see.. the sales will have an upgrade in a few days.

im sure her CDL+the others will help

Hm.. :\

I wonder if it'll go up.

Yup.

It will be more on 1.01 :)

Well, even if she did debut kinda low, we can still remember the old days... when HEAVEN debuted at no.2, and fell to no.3 and ended up no.1 for the week :)

Perhaps that scenario will present itself again?


Hey, that is right.. o_o; avex just randomly said "Oh, the album's out on 12/25 now!"..

That would be so cool.

Releasing the album next week would have been easier to get #1. But this week, many competition!

The sales are low so what only time will tell how long it will chart for. As for blaming it on Christmas that's crap as much promotion it has I even the seen the pics of it on the store shelfs people know it's in store.

Eh. Kobukuro and EXILE >[ lol

Well, I think releasing on such short notice [the morning of 12/25, it was posted on the official site that it was out in stores early] and getting 70k's pretty good..

And just because ads are all over doesn't mean that people know it's out... the ads do have 1.1.2008 on them anyway.

OUCH

well i'm glad for one reason, now she knows she must step up her game

and btw i doubt the sells will rise on the first cuz its a national holiday and many stores wont open :S (if not all of them)

I don't think Ayu really cares that much about her sales to change what she wants to make musically to "gain listeners." :|

Shouldn't you already be aware that she stopped doing that around 2001-2002? XD

the sales are low for what Ayu used to sell, but as it was said...it wasn't known that the album was out for Christmas...
anyway...dunno why avex did this "Christmas special day" anyway...this has decreased first day sales. Unless the christmas day, the first day sales from 01/01/2008 would have been bigger...
GO GO AYU on 01/01 !

anyway...it is sure that avex decision to make a "christmas special day" has decreased first day sales...:no

hope it will still be no. 1 no matter the sales

let's pray...

No, 70k's actually really bad for an album first day. :X [EXILE got around 180-200k their first day]

I'm saying that on such short notice, 70,000 copies were purchased after avex was just like "oh, it's out early!"

i am aware, but it will be stupid to ignore those pointers, after all, the fans were the ones that made her what she is. she must consider them at some point, its not like the million sales were albums that she bought herself

i seriously doubt avex thinks that way..

they promoted such a strong reputation of ayu being a big seller and the "#1" thing... prolly they wont be so *****y about it, since ayu delivered most of time, but c'mon people we all saw this coming

EXILE sold nearly an astonishing 700k first week though......

Ayu hasn't done that since RAINBOW.

Well, she still did amazingly well with Memorial address... 570k first week with a mini album..

I think Ayu's just not as new to Japan :<~ Whereas EXILE got a new member and received a ton of attention :<

Ayumi just needs a Mechayu Mechayu or something. o_______o
IDK! This is nervewracking. First, Morning Musume misses the top 5 and now Ayumi might not get to #1. D: What has Japan come to?! :|

It's not too bad considering it was likely pushed early due to leaks. Ayu really needs to take a break from yearly releases after next year, her sales are only going to get lower and lower.

It'll get higher.

It was pushed early due to Christmas. LOL Not leaks!

I hope you're right!

Can I just say, the OMG PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WAS COMING OUT ON NEW YEARS DAY theory, is bull.
People in Japan, KNOW how the release system works. Even people in different countries online, who have never been to Japan knew it would come out with all the December 26th releases, which meant it will be in stores on Xmas day, as they get released a day earlier than the official date.

Christmas day is not a national holiday, all the shops are open. Even if some people have a special meal, it does not stop them going out and shopping.

I don't know why people are so surprised by the first day sales. She only released 2 singles, the combined total of which was what, 260k? just a little over? That's absurd for Ayu standards. If her singles don't sell, her album won't either.

And the reason I believe she won't get the weekly #1, is because Ayumi is extremely front-loaded. After her first week, her sales plummet. If it was just one week, she might just get it, but as it's 2 weeks, EXILE and kobokuru have a significant chance to overtake. Not only do they have the extra days advantage over GUILTY, they are also more consistent sales. EXILE's old albums have all risen up in the charts due to their surge in popularity lately, and need I remind anyone about the beast that is ALL SINGLES BEST?

1st day of Secret is more than 70,000 copies (it was released on not National Holiday) and 1st day of GUILTY is 40,000 copies (it was released on National Holiday)

Secret released 29 Nov (sales start count) and GUILTY release 1 Jan (sales start count on 25 Dec)..
It is very possible if GUILTY sales are weak because people haven't know about release of GUILTY

i agree :)

i do hope GUILTY's ''first week'' sales will not end up much lesser than m(u)'s (654,000 )...around 400K or higher would be great enough =/ and after all, GUILTY is a great album and i certainly don't wish to see it ended up in an undesirable sales figure and rank =(

aw it's quite nerve-wrecking..solo artist competing with groups.

beh she is way past the point she needs to change anything so she could prove herself to someone ^^, the whole Japan knows who AYU is, the thing is that over the years less people want to buy her albums.We can't really blame it on anything , AYU is constantly out there releasing stuff every few months the past 10 years, there is a limit to everything, maybe they're just getting tired of her, sad, but pretty possible.There is nothing to worry about, I doubt the album will flop and it will get no1 for sure.

I just want Ayu to get number 1!

i think people don't know that ayu's album is on sale because everybody thinks it's on sale in january

As long as debuts in the top, I'm fine with that.

How the hell did they got that popular?

Last time I checked, they weren't really huge. 700k in the first week is AMAZING. It beats "Secret" overall sales in just one week!

Wow, someone in this thread finally knows what they are talking about. All of that is 100% true. Japanese people know how the release system works in the country where they have bee living most if not all of their lives. And Christmas is not treated the same way in Japan as it is in America. :rolleyes Cut it with the excuses people.

Exile has been popular for a while now.

Then why did they outsell their last album released like a year ago in the first week? O_o;

Whatever. Why would someone who doesn't even like Ayu be here in the first place anyway?

ROFL. You're really in no position to criticize, bb. Mad because I called you guys on your excuses?

Yes. I'm mad because you pointed out what was so obvious! :P

But seriously. Whatever. #1 would be nice, and high sales would be even nicer! But I don't think we can do much about the state of Ayu in Japan.

I'm happy with the album and if it doesn't do well, it doesn't do well. Wishing that it's going to sell amazingly isn't going to make it happen. The only way for anyone to do that is to totally change themselves as an artist, and I don't think Ayu'd be willing to do that.. ever.

Then again, it is only the first day, and as an Ayu fan, I can only hope for the better.

Let's wait to see what happens tomorrow before we jump into conclusions. I still stand by my belief that no one apart from a diehard fan would know it would be released on Christmas day and would rush to buy the album since most people would be out celebrating.

Anyway this is kinda getting blown out of proportion. My other fave artist sells like 20k for an album and I'm still bloody happy.

Well this doesn't surprise me...everyone was saying it wasn't going to sell well. Besides, A BEST 2 - BLACK - (which supposedly consisted of Ayu's darker songs) didin't sell as well as A BEST 2 - WHITE - (which was all of her happy songs)...see a trend? I think the public is more interested in Ayu's more uplifting cheerful music than her depressed and dark music.

But hopefully the sales will improve as time goes on.

Probably. It's like the contrary of her non-Japanese fans though. Most prefer her darker songs than say... something like "glitter". I personally don't have a problem with up-beat songs, but not the kind she does now. I prefer the type of upbeat songs she did from ASFXX-RAINBOW.

I don't think ~70,000 the first DAY is bad at all. That's how much Ai Otsuka's Ai Am Best sold the first day, and it sold over 700,000 (which is good nowadays) copies so far and is still selling. Yeah, anything less than 1 million is low for Ayu, but I think that that's what we need to get used to, given the way the industry has changed.

Personally I think it's stupid to say OH IT'S OUT JANUARY 1ST YOU GUYZ and then... have it out a week before. O_o oookay, of course that's going to make your debut sales weak and weird.

However, I really don't care how much it sells because to me that's no indicative of success--but I highly doubt avex people feel the same.

we will se tomorrow...1 day isn't enought

I just hope for the best. I do wish this album will be no. 1.

i agree! let's hope for good sales within the next few weeks.