Rule/Sparkle [NINKI]
 

Ayu's NINKI for Rule/Sparkle is 126.20
http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/ns/

SINGLES
01 126.20 浜崎あゆみ - Rule/Sparkle
02 84.80 flumpool - 星に願いを
03 70.90 DREAMS COME TRUE - GOOD BYE MY SCHOOL DAYS
04 70.10 小田和正 - さよならは 言わない
05 56.20 湘南乃風 - 親友よ
06 55.70 新垣結衣 - piece
07 45.90 abingdon boys school - STRENGTH
08 40.80 大塚愛 - バイバイ
09 38.30 RIP SLYME - STAIES
10 34.50 すぎもとまさと - 曙橋 ~路地裏の少年~
___________________________________
Days/GREEN = 150.80
Mirrorcle World = 84.00
talkin' 2 myself = 127.90
glitter/fated = 154.70

So judging by NINKI, this single could sell pretty much the similar way talkin' 2 myself did, as we predicted. Also it's weird how Aki's releasing an album in the same week (she has also released TODAY in the same week talkin' 2 myself was released, and her first week sales were less than t2m's xD). I guess that considering that this single is meant to promote the album it's ok :)

aww i hope more than t2m :)))

Eh?

Another possible t2m sales?
I do hope not!

How can it tell if the single can sell well on those numbers given by NIKKI?

actually, NINKI doesn't tell you the sales and we can only guess/compare with other singles.

awww noo

anyway, i hope that she reaches to top 1 in charts :D


thanks!

it's quite good , at least she's more or less guaranteed the top spot

the chart action will be interesting after Rule/Sparkle is released , single wise :innocent

Ah... okay! :)
I do hope ti sells well since DB:E will contribute its sales.

Ah okay okay. Like you said, it good promotion I guess. ^^

A relatively low Ninki, but I was expecting even lower considering that it has next to no promotion. I really wonder what Avex is doing. Not even taking TV into account, she has no mags scheduled even though she has a single this week and an album next month - all of the March mags are already out and a number of the April ones too.

flumpool actually has a surprisingly high number there - I thought Tohoshinki would be second. flumpool has been on the rise recently, hopefully this single won't be their big breakthrough.

Yeah, the upcoming week is just a prelude to March-madness xD

@SunshineSlayer - Bold&Delicious NINKI was better than all of the ones I posted and it sold terribly, but yeah I agree that considering everything this isn't bad. As for Ayu and AVEX not promoting the single - I am really starting to doubt they'll do much, but will instead concentrate to promoting the album.

you made a good point , I'm surprised Rule / Sparkle is virtually getting no extra promo

I guess avex's relying soley on the fact that Rule's being used to promote Dragonball Evolution , that's why probably so

lol dude tell me about it , the 1st 2 weeks of March will be stellar for sure , singles wise :D

But if they are really focusing on promoting the album, there should at least be some magazines that are known by now don't you think? Unless they really aren't planning on promoting the album until AFTER it has come out. Also interesting, is that they have apparently filmed at least up until the March 10th episode of Heyx3 (Arashi is going to be on it and fans reported about their appearance) Heyx3 audience is always made up of fan club members, which is how the Japanese Ayu fan sites usually know her tv schedule before Avex posts it. Anyways, so unless they film a last minute segment or something and add her in to one of the episodes, she likely will not be on Heyx3 for at least another couple of weeks. Just really weird considering Ayu's history of promoting on TV imo.

The Bold&Delicious thing is interesting/scary. It was released just a month before her album too and it sold poorly despite the fact that they actually promoted it a lot. Although B&d was very experimental, it still isn't really a good sign for Rule.

I really wonder though about how much DBE is actually being promoted there. I barely hear anything about it in America and I heard even less about it when I was in Japan last week.

Anyways, if you haven't noticed, I'm worried about this single. haha. :) The only good thing going for it is that it is being released at a time without much competition.

The NINKI looks good enought, but I'm still rather worried...

Ninki is rather weird, sometimes it is a good indicator and sometimes not. Like MW ended up selling much better than was expected based on the Ninki and then sometimes releases with high ninki's end up falling flat. :shrug

i'll be very happy if it can sell like that in the first week ! actually i don't like it so much

Well you do have a point, maybe AVEX thinks that the tour will be enough to promote the album :( It's not like GUILTY had good TV promotion as she only sang Together When.. to promote the single and we all know that she did 0 TV perfs to promote the actual album when it was released. But yeah all of the other singles would have scheduled TV perfs by now :( I don't really think DBE will do much for Rule/Sparkle plus the movie is coming out in March. On the other hand considering low-to-none promo. activities Rule/Sparkle's NINKI is quite good.

^The April cover for Vivi is due out in 2 days, so lets hope Ayu is on it since that is usually the main magazine she promotes with. If another week goes by with still nothing announced, I might have to start giving more credence to that so-called "blackout" rumor going around Japanese BBS.

what rumor?

It was discussed at the end of this thread: http://www.ahsforum.com/forum/showth...=84356&page=26

The issue is still kinda up in the air. Although I just read that possibly Dragon Ball was at least finally mentioned on M-Topics tonight.

How did I not see that xD Oh well, as far as my memory goes she did cancel her Music Station Special performance (October 13, 2006 ? Music Station Fall Special ? "Jewel") in 2006 due to health problems, so I kinda doubt the rumor is true (hopefully) :)

I hope she is on the new ViVi >_<; I usually buy it when she is!

^ I totally don't remember that. She performed Jewel on Mstay 3 times if I remember correctly. Fans were discussing if anyone had ever canceled a music station appearance on the day of the show (let alone on the super live) and they said that the only one that came to mind was maybe Tatu. Dreams Come True apparently canceled as well due to illness but she gave them several days notice. If this rumor is true though, its totally ridiculous considering the circumstances. But at the same time, Japan is really big on apologies. Even one of the Ayu fans wrote that if the rumor turns out to be true, she would stop being an Ayu fan. :shock Japan is just crazy serious about that stuff.

edit: just checked my Ayu collection and she did indeed perform Jewel as scheduled on Oct. 13, 2006.

:thud

edit: in the end it might just be that ayu was too busy (being in Hawaii and LA) to shoot the lives and mag. pics.

But they always post schedule news in ayu's official website 2-3 weeks before the release (maybe even just a week before hand).
NEXT LEVEL is still more than a month away.
They didn't promote Rule/Sparkle on TV/mags but I'm (almost) sure they will NEXT LEVEL.
Maybe they did it in order to give it a better promotion and saved for that.

The NINKI is good, I'm glad it has got some interest.
I hope it will get #1 like in the NINKI.
The sales are predicted to be lower than the usual.

NINKI should have been scrapped a long time ago as by right it's not a good indicator at all

it can be very on or off in so many occasions , I lost count to begin with :dead2

So it wasn't canceled, my bad :)

Go ayu, I wounder if the stock market crashing recession thing is affecting avex and that's why there's not as much promoting going around

The NINKI is quite disappointing :( I hope flumpool or DREAMS COME TRUE won't get #1 because it seems like they have a moderate chance in getting #1 too imo :(

And the Ayu fan sites have it up usually at least a week before the official site does. And for magazines it has to be known several weeks in advance because of how early the mags go on the shelves. But really, everything is just rumor right now as to what is going on - I think a lot of fans are just shocked because this is not how Ayu and certainly not how Avex usually promotes - no matter how you look at it its kinda weird. Even Avex announcing a release date for an album that by and large hadn't been recorded yet is weird. Hopefully the latest is true that at least Dragon Ball is getting an m-topics mention today; its not much, but at least its something.

I don't think that would be quite the reason simply due to the fact that they put quite a bit of promotion into Koda's album Trick plus, when I was in Japan the first 2 weeks of this month, they had already started doing promotion stuff with Namie even though her single isn't due till mid march she was on several magazine covers, her cms were getting heavy airplay, and then of course the coke zero posters started going up. I was surprised her promotion was starting that early actually. In comparison, a post from 2 ch says that they have yet to see a single cm on tv for rule/sparkle, Dragon Ball, or even the Honda Zest Spark Cm. I'm seriously interested to see how this single will do. Will it be surprisingly high or rock bottom low?

I'm slightly worried about this as well. Ninki has been known to be highly inaccurate and while DCT has not sold super great lately, this is their 20th anniversary single. I'm more worried about Flumpool though. As other have said, its likely to be an upstart group that would eventually take the single streak away since Avex usually won't put her up against big selling established players. It almost happened with Shuchushin and for whatever reason, flumpool has been gaining a lot of attention the last few months.

I'm getting too into this, haha~ Must go to sleep now. :)

Perhaps the next ViVi issue may feature ayu in the cover! If I'm not wrong, when ayu went to Hawaii in Jan, the ViVi editor/team was there too. So hopefully there's at least one mag promo!

I believe she'll get number 1?.... :S
NEXT LEVEL is gonna harm sales a lot...

but i hope people who love Dragonball will buy..

I think i will just cross my hands and hope that this single will attain #1 with decent sales...

Hmm, since NINKI is so unreliable, I guess I'll wait for the single's actual sales to be released then! Just 5 more days!

Wow, MW was THAT low?

I hope this single will have decent sales... at least enough to hold her no.1 consecutive single record. After she broke that record, I honestly won;t be worry too much whether her singles will chart no.1 or not, though I still hope she will continue to have no.1s for the rest of her career.... (I think I ask too much already^^)

But MW had only 2/3 of t2m's index and look how that sold. But i guess if you want to be conservative and not get your hopes too high, a t2m estimation is prudent lol... I'm hoping for at least 100k in first week though!

nothing which isn't expected :)

So would I, but considering everything, I really don't want to get my hopes up xD So I am trying to be realistic :innocent

I'm sure it will sell better than talkin' 2 myself! 'cause overall single is stronger. IMO

Continuing with the no promotion saga: It is now apparent since the April Digi Diary came out, that Ayu will not be on the cover of Vivi in either March or April. :( Also, Mstay released the guest list for next week: Still no Ayu (but kinda figured that since we now know she is going to LA again) however, flumpool will be there and Mstay usually gives artists a bit of a sales bump; here's hoping it doesn't bump them too high!

aww kinda low.....

ayu needs to sell more!!

IMO it will sell lower than Glitter/fated 1st week but highter than t2ms

oh.. I think that's a good news!

thanks for sharing!

Omedetou!!!

i have fear of dct...they can be a threat

wow
awesome...ayu ganbatte ne ^^!~

Oh dear, DCT are releasing with ayu? Now i'm getting worried. But I really expect nothing short of 100k first week sales. It's ayu for crying out loud. Come on japanese people, it's only 1000 or 1800 yen...

I have a slight fear of them, but their singles haven't been that great sales wise lately. Surprisingly, the new band flumpool will likely be the biggest threat. They have been selling beyond many peoples expectations.

I am more worried about DCT next month! They are releasing a new album 4 days before Ayu's comes out and DCTs albums still sell pretty well.

^ Not to mention their previous studio album even surprisingly outsold GUILTY :o DCT's previous single on the charts have been doing really well and it was even their first #1 single in about 10 years so that's kinda worrying. Would be worse if R / S were to sell like talkin' 2 myself. Then she's doomed.

especially since NEXT LEVEL will be out exactly a month when Rule / Sparkle's out this Wed

it's kinda like what happened to Bold & Delicious / Pride & (miss)understood AGAIN

About NEXT LEVEL: Since Guilty didn't get No.1, what's there to worry about? She won't get 1 so what? The pressure's gone now.

^

Talking about R/S. >_>

Well.. to be honest, at this rate, I don't think anyone would care if Ayu got 1 or 2 since her streak was broken. Personally I only care about her singles right now.

Even if the streak is gone, wouldn't you still want her to get number 1 anyways?

Yes, of course. It would be nice. But if she won't get No. 1 I doubt people would freak out like last year. I'm really curious now how Rule/Sparkle will do, but I'm not worried for NEXT LEVEL.

Imo DCT isn't a threat when it comes to singles ~their previous single struggled to beat the GazettE, the last time:

*1位 *46,452 DREAMS COME TRUE
*2位 *41,200 the GazettE

I am pretty sure they won't beat Rule/Sparkle.

And sure I'd love to see Ayu take a #1 with NEXT LEVEL, but as long as the sales go over 500k in total (or more :D) I won't care about the actual position as it's all about luck and carefully planned release date. (BoA had a #1 with her last studio album which barely sold 180k not to mention many others who had even more miserable album sales)

yeah & somemore THE FACE had 3 different releases too & it didn't hit 200K which surprised me