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I think they've been broken up for a while. I'm not sure how long, but how the announcement was made after MusicStation had to have been planned.
The 'fated' taping at Music Fighter was in early July. She was emotional in this performance, but it's hard to tell whether it was because of her own personal break-up. I think 'fated', at the time it was written, was written primarily for the movie 'Kaidan', as was 'HEAVEN' for 'SHINOBI'.
I think the PV's are a coincidence, but the timing of the announcement definitely isn't.
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