I think she's just tired. It's not since yesterday that she doesn't have to do back-breaking work anymore, she's set up for life. She can just let herself get back to the back-seats and let others take the front lines, like many j-pop legends of the past (perhaps she'd be doing it lot earlier than others like her, but still justified). That's the feeling I got when I heard of her lingerie ads - don't really know why, I just did.
I think Avex might be letting EXILE take the spot as the company's flagship product, at least for some time now. Maybe they don't want the 'franchises' to interfere, seeing how Ayu can't be pushed down people's throats as her fad has obviously faded becouse it might backlash otherwise. Maybe she doesn't want to do an exhausting dome tour - after all, she's doing the asian leg separately this year.
Hard to tell, but I agree it's not really any anniversary Ayu bash or anything.
On the other hand, I'm not sure what would I plan to make it big...
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Ayu is 贅沢「zeitaku」 Luxury | 誘惑「yuuwaku」 Temptation
爆発「bakuhatsu」 Explosion | 化学「kagaku」 Chemistry
夢中「muchuu」 Craziness | 伝心「denshin」 Telepathy | 青春「seishun」 Youth
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