Unfortunately she probably won't get #2 either that week

#3 I think is her spot though.
Some other names releasing that day are: Rina Aiuchi - Greatest Hits
Mano Erina's first album
Yusuke
Namie
Rina's last album barely sold 10k first week, but since it is a greatest hits it's likely to sell more. Mano Erina should be no issue. Yusuke and Namie are both likely to outsell her, if singles are any indication of the success for Yusuke's album. My prediction is:
1. Namie: 300k
2. Yusuke: 150k
3. MISIA: 60k
4. Rina Aiuchi: 25k
But anyways, I LOVE the new single! I'm very impressed by her Ballade style and can't wait for her new album to be released!