I've just re-watched the Rule at Kouhaku performance and to be completely honest I really don't see any difference to the way she sings now as she did 4 or 5 years ago. From RAINBOW ayu's voice has started getting lower and that happens to women as they get older (a woman's voice can break to you know, just not as drastically as a man's or as sudden). Personally I believe that ayu's voice has changed because I think she has taken up smoking. That just what I think. No shame in it but maybe ayu just wants to keep it to herself
The only time that I've heard ayu's vocals sound really bad what at the CDL07-08. They were really off pitch and kinda screechy. But I think since then her vocals have been pretty normal. I think that ayu's older voice was bad. During the Concert Tour I though it was terrible vocally! Her voice was all scratchy and nasally and just really awful.
As for everyone saying that it could be related to the drug related thing, look at ayu. Does she look like she's on drugs?? You can tell when a person is jacked up on something and ayu is always so together. Sure she has her moments and stuff but seriously she's not high. If she was I doubt she'd even be able to perform at all. (and people are saying that she fell on Christmas Day last year cuz she was high? come on, it was Christmas, she was probably just drunk

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