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I think some of you are under-estimating avex and Ayu's management team. If they knew there were slight chances Ayu woudn't be getting a #1 the single would be rescheduled. The only Kumi single that did better than an Ayu single since 2007 was Ai no uta, as it sold a few thousands more than talkin' 2 myself, even though it was a bigger hit, the same's happening with Lollipop and MOON and with all the promo one had and the other one didn't. Not to mention that avex can actually control the sales of both releases.
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