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Well with TOKIO, SMAP, and DCT, Ayu's one of the few contemporary artists who have appeared more than 10 times. All the other artists are enka singers for the most part.
I think this year is a COMPLETE toss-up, considering each team has a juggernaut member (AKB48 and Arashi).
As for the decline in numbers, I don't know if it's because of the dwindling popularity (the show is being watched by less and less people each year, but is still the most popular music-related special), or the plan for some artists to perform medleys. I also wouldn't be surprised if they have another musical dedication to someone or satellite guests like Enya last year. :/
Ayu's position has been first the past couple of times, but it doesn't necessarily mean she will open again. She has been in the latter half before, and STILL performed her CDL after.
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