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Originally Posted by Bigtop
Kind of agreeing about what I hear in some way. Yes, I am quite a fan of AKB48, but as someone said "replaceable", I'm not sure how AKB48 will contribute long-term, because the Ayu effect is very long, while AKB48's replacability kind of questions me how long this will last, and I do have a feeling that some day (yes, some DAY) AKB48's popularity will start to decline...
But when I want to compare with Johnny's...which group should I compare with Ayu? Probably SMAP or something? (And what's the difference between AKB48 and Johnny's, and what differences do they have in terms of how it contributes to the Japanese pop music world yesterday, today and tomorrow?)
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AKB48's popularity will absolutely decline, but they'll probably always be known for their setup. But anyone my age just sees them as the new Hello!Project, and anyone slightly older than me just saw Morning Musume as the new Onyanko Club. Another huge supergroup of girls with rotating members will take their place. The "supergroup" version of Dream didn't have very good timing, they ran concurrently with Morning Musume for awhile and maybe contributed to the overall "huge girl group" trend, but nothing set them apart from MM enough to take their place. AKB48, however, got big with a new type of group organization & new types of releasing schemes right as Morning Musume's popularity was fading. There's nothing "special" about AKB48, but their timing was right so they'll probably remain as well-known as Onyanko Club and Hello!Project/Morning Musume long after everyone has forgotten about other huge girl groups like Dream.
As for Johnny's groups, some have been more influential than others on Jpop in general... Most (not all, but most) JE groups are only known as JE groups. Nothing really sets one apart from another, with rare exceptions. KinKi Kids, for example, are probably famous in their own right, not just because they're cute guys. You can't say that for groups like w-inds or News, I'm sorry to say. Other groups, like TOKIO, stand out for playing their own instruments, but you can't say they're as influential since a group of guys playing their own instruments is interesting in the context of Johnny's groups, but not in general. Plus JE groups like The Good-Bye (yocchan was on guitar & vocals in that particular group, btw) are less known, but they were the JE experiments that ultimately paved the way for TOKIO. Arashi wouldn't have happened if SMAP hadn't been successful.
I think the Johnny's era that gave us now well-known groups like SMAP, TOKIO, and KinKi Kids just happened to be at a time when Jpop was selling very, very well. It's not that those groups were especially influential, although they did have very high-quality pop songs in their respective repertoires and they are good looking guys. It's just that they were lucky, so they get to be well-known. I don't think these groups specifically have had a lasting effect on the Jpop world stylistically, but the Johnny's Entertainment umbrella as a whole probably has.