[CHARTS + SALES] GUILTY -- ORICON STYLE

[TITANIC]

its not really good chart..
i hope 1st week it can sell more than a best 2 white or more than 475K in 1st week..

[bluegie]

Well dun forget oricon will combine 1st + 2nd weeks sales together. Though I dunno if it's a positive or negative to GUILTY.

If the 2008.01.01 official release date theory is happening and more people will get the album afterwards, the longer chart run will definitely making ayu getting another no. 1.

BUT if this theory doesn't work... Well two options available:
1) the sales of GUILTY keep decreasing so it cannot beat Kobukuro (and maybe even EXILE, but doubt ayu will get no. 3 because EXILE and ayu are practically under avex.. providing that rhythmzone is under avex)

2) the sales of Kobukuro and EXILE decreases dramatically while GUILTY's sales are steady. Then ayu will get herself another no. 1.

[criminal]

I'm sure Kobukuro's and EXILE's sales will decrease, but honestly, Ayumi isn't known as the steadiest seller in Japan. D: Let's just hope her decreases will be smaller and her increases bigger.

[Jwiz]

^ does combining 1st + 2nd weeks sales helped m(u) in it's sales back then? (sorry im a late ayu fan)

[TITANIC]

maybe 1st+2nd week combine guilty can reach 1st week

i hope exile and kobukuro sales will decrease dramatical..so guilty is the 9th album streak at 1st..

[bluegie]

OK... I guess we have to account some facts for the index:
1) usually cds released on Wednesday in Japan, so GUILTY is supposed to be arrived at cd stores on the 26th rite? But this time avex released it on Tuesday the 25th (so that people can buy the cd on the x'mas day).. Therefore, unless you're hardcore fans, otherwise normal people would think that GUILTY should be in store on the 26th.

2) Maybe not lots of Japanese go shopping on x'mas day. (I guess we'll need someone living in Japan to tell us if that is true or not).

3) Usually the sales shown on the first day is the preorder sales...


Points 1 and 2 are positive, while point #3 is negative. I mean, the first day sale of GUILTY is combination of the "surprise Dec 25th in stores sales" + preorder sales. So that means there is not much preorder for GUILTY this time..

Originally Posted by HJeweL

^ does combining 1st + 2nd weeks sales helped m(u) in it's sales back then? (sorry im a late ayu fan)

The "first week" sales of (m)u was around 600 - 680K I guess, which wasn't too bad. But this album showed the short chart run of ayu's album in the first time. I think Memorial address and MY STORY's two weeks combined sales are around 700K, not significantly higher, but both albums went over 1 million copies eventually. (m)u didn't.

[Jwiz]

Originally Posted by bluegie

3) Usually the sales shown on the first day is the preorder sales...


Points 1 and 2 are positive, while point #3 is negative. I mean, the first day sale of GUILTY is combination of the "surprise Dec 25th in stores sales" + preorder sales. So that means there is not much preorder for GUILTY this time..

oh i see...yeah that's quite disappointing

Must have faith in GUILTY sales; im sure it will rise when the official date is near.

[ayu_fan929]

Originally Posted by bluegie

1) usually cds released on Wednesday in Japan, so GUILTY is supposed to be arrived at cd stores on the 26th rite? But this time avex released it on Tuesday the 25th (so that people can buy the cd on the x'mas day).. Therefore, unless you're hardcore fans, otherwise normal people would think that GUILTY should be in store on the 26th.

"Official" release dates are on the Wednesday, but stores release it on the Tuesday.

[bluegie]

Originally Posted by ayu_fan929

"Official" release dates are on the Wednesday, but stores release it on the Tuesday.

I dun think so. Normally the first day sales on oricon (Tuesday) is the preorder sales, not the in store sales. GUILTY is different that it was in store on Tuesday because of the "Christmas" release.

We really have to see tonight (wed) oricon index to discuss the further album sales. Right now we're just speculating

[ayu_fan929]

Originally Posted by bluegie

I dun think so. Normally the first day sales on oricon (Tuesday) is the preorder sales, not the in store sales. GUILTY is different that it was in store on Tuesday because of the "Christmas" release.

No, preorder sales come from the x1.7/x1.75 factor that's used at the end of the week. Most releases start their in-store sales on the Tuesday.

^So that means it actually did better than we thought?

[bluegie]

Originally Posted by ayu_fan929

No, preorder sales come from the x1.7/x1.75 factor that's used at the end of the week. Most releases start their in-store sales on the Tuesday.

Hmmn... isn't that the index comes from like only a portion of stores? Not all the stores submit the sales until the end of the week, that is why the 1.75 factor plays the rule when estimating the actual sales?

[Amuro_Ray]

if someone still do not buy this album, pls try to book it in this week. I think it is only thing we can do in this moment.

[Ayufan11]

Originally Posted by Amuro_Ray

if someone still do not buy this album, pls try to book it in this week. I think it is only thing we can do in this moment.

lol , you guys are so funny. its not that serious

[MemorialAddress]

Originally Posted by Ayufan11

lol , you guys are so funny. its not that serious

LOL I know right, not like our one purchase will change Ayu fate in the Oricon rankings

[henrydawg87]

Originally Posted by MemorialAddress08

LOL I know right, not like our one purchase will change Ayu fate in the Oricon rankings

Sure, one album won't affect much.
But I don't think 1 person bought all the estimated 108,031 albums so far...

[Not~Yet]

Isn't this just 12.25.07 sales? Maybe the sales will decrease as soon as people recover from their christmas money loss...

[bluegie]

Like I said, Dec 25th sales are combination of Christmas day sales + preorder sales. I dun really think preorder sales would be affected by the money loss issue that much. Most people would have preordered the album during the first 2 weeks when the album was available to be ordered (that means it's around mid nov).

[TITANIC]

i agree with bluegie in poitn 1 and 2..
and i think japanese people spend alot of money for xmas day..
so in my opinion they think they wil buy this album later

let me soo tomorrow's chart

[WillofDusk]

The album is friggin amazing, I hope it will do well