[Charts & Rankings] Rule/Sparkle - ORICON STYLE

[aura~]

if it sells around 7K this last two days, R/S can sell 100K first week... what imo is great taking in acoutn the circumstances...

^^

[njanjayrp]

The only problem is that Oricon week has 6 days and not seven (at least for the new releases xD), so she only has one day left.

[Melon Panda]

Is she facing any (serious) competition yet?

[ayumisrael]

No competition, Rule/Sparkle will get #1 weekly.
DREAMS COME TRUE and flumpool should've been competition (specially with the lack of promotion of Rule/Sparkle and NEXT LEVEL announcement) but it seems that ayu is still strong enough, to sell enough with those circumstances, so their singles aren't competitions at all, the difference is pretty big and even ayu's single is the best selling release (overall albums/singles) of the week. =D

[jbrat2219]

Wow sales went up! This single is defying all the odds hahaha.

[Jwiz]

Originally Posted by ayumisrael

No competition, Rule/Sparkle will get #1 weekly.
DREAMS COME TRUE and flumpool should've been competition (specially with the lack of promotion of Rule/Sparkle and NEXT LEVEL announcement) but it seems that ayu is still strong enough, to sell enough with those circumstances, so their singles aren't competitions at all, the difference is pretty big and even ayu's single is the best selling release (overall albums/singles) of the week. =D

I know ayu is still strong enough, but i hope AVEX won't resort to this kind of promotion again, because it's so nerve wreaking to know how well a single would fare with close to zero promotion XD

[waterballoon]

^ Agreed.

And Rule/Sparkle is breaking the promotion "rules" and sparkles in the charts now! Hahaha.

[KarenPang]

Originally Posted by ayumisrael

No competition, Rule/Sparkle will get #1 weekly.
DREAMS COME TRUE and flumpool should've been competition (specially with the lack of promotion of Rule/Sparkle and NEXT LEVEL announcement) but it seems that ayu is still strong enough, to sell enough with those circumstances, so their singles aren't competitions at all, the difference is pretty big and even ayu's single is the best selling release (overall albums/singles) of the week. =D

everyone was worried with regards to DCT & flumpool's releases but at least it has been put to rest now

I can't wait to see the singles chart action in the next 3 weeks ARASHI , KAT-TUN & then Namie Amuro woot

Originally Posted by Jwiz

I know ayu is still strong enough, but i hope AVEX won't resort to this kind of promotion again, because it's so nerve wreaking to know how well a single would fare with close to zero promotion XD

ya man , she got lucky this time round with virtually no promo on R&S

I hope it wouldn't happen again

Originally Posted by waterballoon

^ Agreed.

And Rule/Sparkle is breaking the promotion "rules" and sparkles in the charts now! Hahaha.

nice puns Jun Xiang

[SolarAngel]

Yeah i was worried about DCT but seems it was misplaced. I'm so glad Arashi and KATTUN didn't release in the same week.

[SunshineSlayer]

Originally Posted by ayumisrael

No competition, Rule/Sparkle will get #1 weekly.
DREAMS COME TRUE and flumpool should've been competition (specially with the lack of promotion of Rule/Sparkle and NEXT LEVEL announcement) but it seems that ayu is still strong enough, to sell enough with those circumstances, so their singles aren't competitions at all, the difference is pretty big and even ayu's single is the best selling release (overall albums/singles) of the week. =D

It seems that Dreams Come True didn't really do any promo either. We should keep an eye out on her album next month though. Flumpool I thought might put up a better fight, but overall R/S just did better than expected to begin with.

I kinda miss the days though when artists had really exciting battles for number 1. As bluegie has said, nowadays the labels try to avoid other major artists release date - you don't get the excitement of the head to head competition anymore.

Originally Posted by jbrat2219

Wow sales went up! This single is defying all the odds hahaha.

Almost all singles have a sales rise on the weekend no matter what.

btw, Arashi's ninki for next week: A crazy, 359.40.

edited to add: Actually now that I think about it, maybe these sales aren't quite that surprising for Ayu and are actually a good indicator of her loyal fanbases' size. We are always saying recently that her sales are driven primarily by her hardcore fans. Well, I would say with no promotion and an album out next month, that the first week sales for this single should be a pretty good rough indication of how many fans Ayu has that will pretty much buy anything that she puts out no matter what the circumstance is. I would say that likely very few casual listeners are going to buy this because if they know that an album is coming out next month, why would they? So, if we compare the first week of this single to first week of Days, the difference in sales might be a somewhat accurate indication of how many casual fans she was able to bring in due to promotion.

[ayumisrael]

x->1->1->1->1->1 - Rule/Sparkle - 24,493 + 11,283 + 5,214 + 4,082 + 4,375 + 3,687 (x1.75) = 92,984
(flumpool are #3 today =P)


Estimated First Week Sales: 92,984

And ayu's 20th #1 consecutive single =D

[njanjayrp]

Great!! 93k as predicted!
@SunshineSlayer - that's prolly true, but there are always those who don't intend to buy the album, liked Rule or Sparkle and bought the single

[freedreamer]

small drop.. cool!

[KarenPang]

awesome , Rule / Sparkle has nailed it !

[bluegie]

Originally Posted by SunshineSlayer

So, if we compare the first week of this single to first week of Days, the difference in sales might be a somewhat accurate indication of how many casual fans she was able to bring in due to promotion.

Well partially true. I actually think digital sales are closer to estimate how well received a song is. We can really compare the charting life of Days vs. Rule on digital world.. (and it's obvious that Days wins this hands down).

Also, the difference in cd sales might also refer to something else. Maybe the promotion for Days made those not-so-hardcore ayu fans buying the single. You know, some fans (e.g., me) just buy her albums. We can't say those who don't buy singles are not her fans rite? We can just say those (including myself) are not super hardcore. Sometimes special promotion will make those fans spending extra money on their idols. I as an example. I never buy ayu singles, but I bought both CD+DVD versions of MW because it was the 10th anniversary single, and it was released on April 8, which made me feel it's so special that I couldn't resist to buy it.

[SunshineSlayer]

Originally Posted by njanjayrp

Great!! 93k as predicted!
@SunshineSlayer - that's prolly true, but there are always those who don't intend to buy the album, liked Rule or Sparkle and bought the single

Yes, that has to be taken into account - though I would assume it might be a relatively small number.

Originally Posted by bluegie

Also, the difference in cd sales might also refer to something else. Maybe the promotion for Days made those not-so-hardcore ayu fans buying the single. You know, some fans (e.g., me) just buy her albums. We can't say those who don't buy singles are not her fans rite? We can just say those (including myself) are not super hardcore. Sometimes special promotion will make those fans spending extra money on their idols. I as an example. I never buy ayu singles, but I bought both CD+DVD versions of MW because it was the 10th anniversary single, and it was released on April 8, which made me feel it's so special that I couldn't resist to buy it.

Right, that's why I said it might be a good indicator of how large her hardcore fan base that will by anything is. But as for casual fans that can be brought in by promotion its harder to say, but comparing this to days/green is about as close as we are going to be able to get in terms of guessing how much promo can really influence her sales or not and if a large portion of casual listeners still find her appealing. And we will know more too about that when the album is released.

[bluegie]

Hmmn, I always think her hardcore fanbase (or more precisely, the ones who will buy whatever ayu releases) is around ~100K.. Wait a sec.. ahh I think it's getting harder now.

Days/GREEN had 120K on the first week, and we can assume that R/S will have around 93K on the first week.. The problem is, how many hardcore fans will buy all versions? If all hardcore fans buy every version, then it looks like ayu only has 30K hardcore fans (Days: 4 versions; R/S: 3 versions). Of course the probability of every fan buying all versions is very very low.. It is hard to guess... Someone from math department pls help me to solve this case lol .

[SunshineSlayer]

Originally Posted by bluegie

Hmmn, I always think her hardcore fanbase (or more precisely, the ones who will buy whatever ayu releases) is around ~100K.. Wait a sec.. ahh I think it's getting harder now.

Days/GREEN had 120K on the first week, and we can assume that R/S will have around 93K on the first week.. The problem is, how many hardcore fans will buy all versions? If all hardcore fans buy every version, then it looks like ayu only has 30K hardcore fans (Days: 4 versions; R/S: 3 versions). Of course the probability of every fan buying all versions is very very low.. It is hard to guess... Someone from math department pls help me to solve this case lol .

Yep thats true! That's why I hate multiple versions because it makes it much more difficult to gauge the size of a fanbase. But I guess since almost everyone releases multiple versions these days, it kind of evens out. No doubt though that 93,000 isn't the actual number of people that bought Rule/Sparkle - since we are assuming that it is mostly die hards buying this, I think the chances of people buying 2 or 3 versions is higher than usual.

[waterballoon]

Oh wow she's really strong! Woo 93k first week... and 20th consecutive single! Woo!

And actually, another factor into comparing GREEN/Days & Rule/Sparkle is that the style for both singles are very different.

We all know Days is the ballad that Japan loves... and Rule is well rock, and that's not exactly very well-received in Japan right?

So yeah.

[RadnasticReggie]

This is perfect, once everyone sees her single doing so well, the album sales, I believe
Will increase greatly, although I'm a tad worried for so many march releases!
Everyone better be buying her album!!