New single MOON / blossom 7/14, 1st part of 3 single project [II]

[dreamland2.0]

Arashi's single is only being released in one version which is limited, hence I am positive there will be no threat to Ayu's first week with their second week sales.

An awful lot of people are releasing in July aren't they! I wonder if one of MOON/blossom will be a digital hit like Sunrise last year.

[truehappiness]

It's the 2nd week of an Arashi single that'll be out on the 7th. I wouldn't really worry all that much.

542,334 - 64,632
431,685 - 42,302
342,070 - 33,313

Recent 2nd weeks as posted by Rody!.

Ayu's last five first weeks:
145,576
127,650
95,309
75,352
103,351 *2 weeks*

[Mirrorcle Monster]

Ayu can totally beat it...i hope.

[ILoveGeniuses]

@teddbear55: Yeah ,a lot of artists are. Ayu, Kumi, BoA and now also Namie are all releasing singles in July. they're my 4 top favorite singers, so I have to buy all of those. Then there's some other upcoming stuff I've been seeing too in July that I'd like to own. It seems like July will be a busy month for everybody.

Also, if this Arashi single is limited I really believe we dont need to worry too much about it.

[Crystal_Ageha]

^ I wouldn't throw out the competition, merely because it's "limited". Not all limited releases are truly that limited...

But yes. For Ayu to get number one in this week, she definitely CAN'T drop any significant amount more (I'd say no more than 20k, definitely, but that shouldn't happen, I don't think..), and Arashi needs to not sell more than average (which also shouldn't happen, but you never know) - selling much more than 50k will probably screw her over. I mean, since the last single was two weeks combined, you figure the first week was probably between 60k and 70k, right? And this single shouldn't drop in sales too much, but you know it should drop at least somewhat. Plan on right under 70k, tops (if she exceeds that, then YAY!), though probably between 50 and 60......
It'll be very close. I honestly think she can do this, though. The sales you guys listed for Arashi's second weeks really bumps up my confidence. If we look at those, and also at what this single is, it should sell around 40k, and if that's the case, I'm not worried at all. It all comes down to if a freak occurrence comes up, lol. (Like, if Arashi magically sells 60k the second week, or if Ayu's sales plummet to less than 50k the first week or something...) But I do have a good feeling about these next three singles. Rock'n'Roll Circus is doing great, and now fans are very hyped about this project. I have faith that she can do this.

[truehappiness]

There's basically no reason for her to drop though... this single has a pretty nice summer track and a nice little nostalgic track. This isn't t2m or B&D with the experimentalness (fully rock single / crazy gospel Ayu) so it shouldn't be in the same territory... I think.

[Mami-chan]

Arashi's single is not a limited edition but a special one with dvd and a lower price ^^;

Anyway, I'm sure Ayu will do it!! (can't say the same for the poor Kuu ^^;
Go Ayu!!! è_é/

[Bigtop]

Arashi's single is quite "irregular" (only two tracks - one song with instrumental version), so I think they might not sell as well as their other singles (might go 300,000 some for first week then like 50-60,000 second); if Arashi announces a new album even before the single releases, as I said that could dampen sales of the "to be free" single (that seems to be similar to ikimono-gakari's "arigatou" single except that it also includes a DVD)...

[Nackar_91]

Besides, it only has one track and an instrumental but it IS a cheap single. ikimono-gakari's Arigatou also sold more than their other singles, even though it only had one song.

Even when looking at Johnny's singles : Kinki Kids' Anniversary single only had one track but because it was cheaper it still sold a lot more than their other singles around that time.

[Crystal_Ageha]

Guys, don't let the 'only one track' thing get to you, either! I saw this thing, and it comes with the PV and making of, so that more than makes up for it, for how cheap it is. And even if it were a complete rip-off, it's not like most of the fangirls would care much, lol.

[Pieces_of_SEVEN]

Originally Posted by Crystal_Ageha

Guys, don't let the 'only one track' thing get to you, either! I saw this thing, and it comes with the PV and making of, so that more than makes up for it, for how cheap it is. And even if it were a complete rip-off, it's not like most of the fangirls would care much, lol.

I agree with this...

[njanjayrp]

Originally Posted by Bigtop

Arashi's single is quite "irregular" (only two tracks - one song with instrumental version), so I think they might not sell as well as their other singles (might go 300,000 some for first week then like 50-60,000 second); if Arashi announces a new album even before the single releases, as I said that could dampen sales of the "to be free" single (that seems to be similar to ikimono-gakari's "arigatou" single except that it also includes a DVD)...

That would be true if it wasn't a JE band we're talking about, they don't really sell loads of albums...however I am sure Ayu won't be having probs beating their second week.

[Cherry Dynamite]

You can do it Ayu...

Hopefully Ayu won't lose her streak, Because I know for a fact that people will make a big deal out of it and say something like "Ayu lose her streak I don't want to listen to her anymore LOOOSEEER Ayu"

[Kingdom]

Originally Posted by Cherry Dynamite

"Ayu lose her streak I don't want to listen to her anymore LOOOSEEER Ayu"

That's sad tbh, why would anyone even do that? obsessive fans need to gtfo

Number 1 isn't even a big deal anyway. if avex were really concerned, they would move Ayumi's release date.

[love in music]

Originally Posted by Cherry Dynamite

You can do it Ayu...

Hopefully Ayu won't lose her streak, Because I know for a fact that people will make a big deal out of it and say something like "Ayu lose her streak I don't want to listen to her anymore LOOOSEEER Ayu"

I don't think fans would do that, they would overreact for sure, but if they said something like that..
I know it would make a lot of haters happy though. I actually saw someone on another forum that always looks forward to ayu's sales because they want to watch her lose her streak, they were almost positive she'd lose it with S/S and were like on the edge of their seats waiting for the sales Kind of creepy though..

[Picaflor 7/4]

ayumi's new single can rank #99th for all I are. it's not going to change my opinion about her. It's not going to make me like her music any less.

[primavera♥]

Originally Posted by Cherry Dynamite

You can do it Ayu...

Hopefully Ayu won't lose her streak, Because I know for a fact that people will make a big deal out of it and say something like "Ayu lose her streak I don't want to listen to her anymore LOOOSEEER Ayu"

awww sadly ur right . . .when people do things like that, it just makes me think u never really truly like the artist if u can so easily abandon them

my jrockers never chart like above so well unless its a more popular one. but theyre always #1 in my heart. it goes like this for ayu. and really several of my fav artists

what music sounds good to ones ears can never be determined by sales imo.

i really dont feel like waiting for this. it seems so promising. well i love MOON already in lq.

[gallowsCalibrator]

Originally Posted by majrakun

I never really understood this sales thing. I just buy them XD

Same here (^_^)' I mean, it's great when Ayu gets good sales (and really, she ALWAYS does <3) like, even though GUILTY got #2, that's still amazing, considering other artists' sales... Ayu does amazing with every sale~

I just never got the whole sale hype (^_^)'

[hsienko]

Originally Posted by StrawbariSnowAyumi

awww sadly ur right . . .when people do things like that, it just makes me think u never really truly like the artist if u can so easily abandon them

my jrockers never chart like above so well unless its a more popular one. but theyre always #1 in my heart. it goes like this for ayu. and really several of my fav artists

what music sounds good to ones ears can never be determined by sales imo.

i really dont feel like waiting for this. it seems so promising. well i love MOON already in lq.

Yeah just look at Ami Suzuki, her music is a lot better now than it was before avex when she was getting #1's and what not and the highest she ever charts above #17.

I think if avex thinks arashi is too much of a threat to her streak they'll push the release date back like they did with You were.../BALLAD.

[AyuGAME]

i hope 100k + for first week