Secret: Sales Prediction?

[truehappiness]

I guess we'll all see.

Only time will tell.

[Yukitora]

1st week: 437,465
2nd week: 201,126
3rd week: *97,195

3 week TOTAL: 735,777

imo, I do not think this album will break the one million mark, outsell (m)u or come close to Black Cherry or THE END. And I am loving almost every aspect of Secret to far.

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

If I had the money I would buy 1 million copies of Secret myself

[Yukitora]

^That would be awesome $30 million... =D ($45 mil AUD)

[Mad_Cactuar]

I always thought about buying a hundred thousand copies of A Ballads to make it reach a million before.

Now I guess I'll just use the money to give Ayu an American music career. Or Ai. Whichever comes knocking on my door first.

[truehappiness]

Originally Posted by Yukitora

1st week: 437,465
2nd week: 201,126
3rd week: *97,195

3 week TOTAL: 735,777

imo, I do not think this album will break the one million mark, outsell (m)u or come close to Black Cherry or THE END. And I am loving almost every aspect of Secret to far.

I really don't think that THE END is gonna sell that well..
It might be that NANA -> Johnny's in that the singles sell tons, but an album will flop.. [well not flop, but definitely not sell as well as the single..]

[emi♡]

530,000
340,000
120,001
890,001

[..:Hot:Like:Wow:..]

^ that sounds pretty accurate

[truehappiness]

I have this weird feeling that the second week will plummet just as Hikki's did.. x.x

Hikki has like 530-550k first week and like a 140k second week.. :<

[immel]

Originally Posted by pop909

If you think about it.. The fourth week is the CDL so it might actually be higher than the 3rd week
my prediction
Week 1: 400k
Week 2: 100k
Week 3: 50k
Week 4: 80k

I doubt that CDL would actually make the sales of the 4th week higher than the third. It might reduce the drop a bit, though.

Originally Posted by emiko

530,000
340,000
120,001
890,001

Sounds very sensible, you must have spent hours on that one.

[ayu_fan929]

Originally Posted by truehappiness

Hikki has like 530-550k first week and like a 140k second week.. :<

The same thing happened to MY STORY... So I don't think making predictions like 550k/600k (1st week) -> anything over 230k (2nd week) are really that logical.

[Qt Mashi]

well hope Ayu gets higher sales than my prediction

Week 1: 428,000
Week 2: 118,000
Week 3: 98,000

TOTAL: 644,000

[immel]

Originally Posted by ayu_fan929

The same thing happened to MY STORY... So I don't think making predictions like 550k/600k (1st week) -> anything over 230k (2nd week) are really that logical.

That's quite true.

I wonder if 2006 was simply a bad year for the female artists, or if it will be more or less impossible to break the million from now on.

[Keishi]

Originally Posted by paperbag

Finally someone with my POV

You can count me in too.

[extepan]

i think:
420,000
200,000
90,000
43,000

total for 4 weeks: 713,000

[darkswordz]

mine prediction:
521,000
211,000
121,000

[Nu-NRG]

I think for the first week
500,000
2nd,3rd week..really no clue

[criminal]

No quote, sorry, but I agree on Black Cherry and Secret being neck and neck in sales. Of course, Kumiko is the current "it"-girl of all of JPop, but Ayumi has that strong fanbase that would buy her material even if they would get kicked out of their home for not paying the rent (um, something like that, not literally, ok?). Also, Ayumi's single sales are ~447k for this era, Kumiko's are ~903k. That 447k is from 4 songs out of the 14 total on Secret, Kumiko's 903k is for 6 (7, if you add Futari de...) songs out of 15, let's not forget that she's also releasing WON'T BE LONG and Cherry Girl/Unmei a matter of weeks before Black Cherry. So basically, people have more than half of Kumiko's album, at the same time they have a mere 35% of Secret.

[Lyra-Shini-Gami]

I hope REALLY REALLY to hit the Million!!!

[immel]

Originally Posted by criminal

Also, Ayumi's single sales are ~447k for this era, Kumiko's are ~903k. That 447k is from 4 songs out of the 14 total on Secret, Kumiko's 903k is for 6 (7, if you add Futari de...) songs out of 15, let's not forget that she's also releasing WON'T BE LONG and Cherry Girl/Unmei a matter of weeks before Black Cherry. So basically, people have more than half of Kumiko's album, at the same time they have a mere 35% of Secret.

I wonder which one is actually better.

Releasing a lot of material before the album release as promotion, or trying to keep more material exclusive for the album.